Bitcoin has been trying to build on its previous growth in recent weeks, but its further advance is now being hampered by a tangible lack of new capital. Data from the analytics firm Glassnode show that most of the increase in realized capitalization was not generated by new money, but merely by transfers of bitcoins among existing holders. Over the past 30 days, approximately 4.9 billion USD in new capital flowed into Bitcoin, while realized capitalization increased by a significantly higher 12.8 billion USD. At the same time, Bitcoin has failed four times to break the 87,000 USD mark, and profit-taking has significantly intensified in the market.
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Little Fresh Money Flows into the Market, Growth Driven by Existing Players
The inflow of so-called “new money,” which comes into Bitcoin, for example, through corporate reserves, increased stablecoin liquidity, or US spot ETFs, reached approximately 4.9 billion USD over the past 30 days. In the context of the entire market, this amount is insufficient to explain the current growth in realized capitalization, which rose by 12.8 billion USD during the same period. New money thus accounted for less than two-fifths of the total increase. This discrepancy occurs because realized capitalization values each BTC according to the price of its last on-chain transfer – part of the growth thus arises from existing market participants selling coins to each other at increasingly higher prices.
Unlike the bull periods in 2024 and 2025, the current rally therefore lacks a corresponding inflow of new capital. Weaker interest from new buyers is already evident directly on the price chart: since the end of September, Bitcoin has attempted four times to break the 87,000 USD mark, but none of these attempts were successful. Above this level, selling pressure significantly increases, which buyers must absorb if they want to push the price higher. Without overcoming this key resistance, the current consolidation risks continuing.
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Pressure from Short-Term Holders and the Risk of Further Consolidation
A significant factor in the market is now the behavior of so-called short-term holders, i.e., investors holding Bitcoin for less than 155 days. This group reacts very sensitively to price movements and takes profits significantly earlier than long-term investors during rapid growth. When Bitcoin recently closed a week above the 85,000 USD mark, approximately 86% of bitcoins sent to exchanges came precisely from short-term holders selling for profit. This is the highest proportion in the last year, whereas on a typical day, this indicator remains below 40%.
According to CryptoQuant data, the aggregate purchase price of short-term holders is around 78,250 USD, which means that the average investor in this group is still in profit and has an incentive to continue selling. While spot ETFs remain the main channel for fresh capital inflow, with a net 2.97 billion USD flowing in over the last 30 trading days, the market still needs a stronger impulse. If the inflow of new money does not increase and short-term holders continue to take profits, Bitcoin may struggle to overcome current resistances and will have to go through a longer period of consolidation.
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Sources:
- On-chain analysis data and charts: Glassnode.com
- Data on short-term holder cost basis (UTXO Age Bands): CryptoQuant.com
- Evolution of flows into spot ETFs: terminal.kryptomagazin.cz
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