The most famous cryptocurrency enters another October week in a tense situation. While support at $82,500 USD secures it from below, strong resistance around $87,570 USD, representing the price from the beginning of this year, crushes it from above. However, the market’s future direction will not only be decided by charts but primarily by developments in the US bond market and the Fed’s upcoming actions.
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Technical Outlook: Pressure on Annual Highs and Liquidity Zones
Bitcoin concluded the last week relatively strongly, closing above $86,500 USD on the exchange, its best performance since late January. However, subsequent attempts to overcome the $87,570 USD level failed once again. This threshold, marking the so-called annual open, has become an imaginary concrete wall that bulls have been unsuccessfully trying to break through since late September. Each successive rejection only confirms that a massive number of sell orders are located in this area, preventing further growth.
On the opposite side of the barricade, analysts are closely monitoring a narrow support zone with a key point at $82,500 USD. Maintaining this level is absolutely essential for any further growth towards targets above $90,000 USD. However, if this support were to fall, the cryptocurrency would genuinely risk falling back into a longer-term trading range between $60,000 and $80,000 USD. The market is currently oscillating within a very tight corridor, awaiting a stronger impulse to determine the future trend.
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Macroeconomic Threats: Record Bonds and Fed Expectations
However, technical analysis tells only half the story, as the broader economy currently has a crucial impact on investors’ willingness to take risks. US government bonds play a central role, with their yields reaching the highest levels since 2002. For example, the ten-year yield, which surpassed 5.28% in recent days, presents strong competition for speculative assets. A safe yet high return from government securities naturally drains capital that might otherwise flow into the riskier Bitcoin.
All eyes are now on upcoming macroeconomic data, especially the minutes from the US central bank (Fed) meeting and inflation statistics. While weaker US labor market data offer hope for a more cautious approach from the Fed regarding further rate hikes, persistent inflation could quickly dampen any optimism. For the bulls, the historically strong October seasonality is currently playing a key role, having already manifested in unexpectedly positive growth during the first days of the month.
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