Bitcoin has had an exceptionally strong August, during which its price rose by nearly a quarter. However, the start of September brought a sobering reality. The largest cryptocurrency has once again fallen below the $80,000 threshold and is entering a month that has an unflattering nickname among cryptocurrency investors: “Rektember.” Historically, September has been one of the weakest periods of the year. Does this mean investors should prepare for another drop?
In the cryptocurrency market, there’s a specific term for almost everything. Optimistic October is referred to as “Uptober,” periods of rapid growth as bull runs, and September has earned a considerably less flattering nickname: “Rektember.” It’s a play on words derived from the term “rekt,” which the crypto community uses for significant financial losses.
September’s reputation isn’t based solely on internet memes. Historical figures actually show that the ninth month of the year has been problematic for bitcoin. However, this time the situation is more complex. Bitcoin is entering September after one of its strongest months in recent years, institutional investors and American spot bitcoin ETFs play a significantly larger role in the market, and the market structure differs substantially from the period when Rektember’s reputation emerged. Additionally, geopolitical tensions, expensive oil, and expectations of further interest rate hikes in the United States are coming into play.
Article contents:
- Why is September called Rektember?
- Bitcoin has had an exceptionally strong August
- The biggest problem may not be Rektember, but the Fed
- Expensive oil and geopolitics have also entered the game
- Institutional Capital Stands Against Rektember
- Why Is September Actually So Problematic for Markets?
- Does Rektember Represent a Bitcoin Buying Opportunity?
- What to Watch for Bitcoin Price During September 2026?
Why is September called Rektember?
Historical data indeed confirms that September has long been unfavorable for bitcoin investors. According to Dow Jones Market Data, highlighted by MarketWatch, September has been bitcoin’s worst month since 2014, with an average decline of approximately 2.2 percent.
A slightly different picture emerges when using a longer time series. CoinGlass data showed an average September return of around minus 3.8 percent for the period from 2013. The differences between individual statistics are primarily related to which year the analysis starts from.
September gained a particularly bad reputation during the period between 2017 and 2022. Bitcoin recorded six losing Septembers in a row during that time. It was precisely this streak that helped turn Rektember into one of the cryptocurrency market’s best-known seasonal phenomena.
More interesting than the long-term average, however, may be what has happened in recent years. The last three completed Septembers have ended in the black for bitcoin.
The turning point came in 2023. A year later, bitcoin disrupted September’s reputation even more significantly—in September 2024, it rose by 7.3 percent and recorded its best ninth month of the year at the time. In September 2025, bitcoin added approximately 5.2 percent, recording its third consecutive positive September.
So Rektember is not a rule. It’s a historical tendency that has moreover stopped working in recent years.
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Bitcoin has had an exceptionally strong August
Moreover, bitcoin is not entering this year’s Rektember after an unremarkable summer. Quite the opposite. During August 2026, bitcoin added approximately 24 to 25 percent. As MarketWatch points out, this was its best monthly performance since November 2024.
According to preliminary CoinDesk data, bitcoin entered August around $63,000 and traded at approximately $79,000 at the end of the month. August’s growth thus reached approximately 25 percent.
The start of September is considerably more nervous. Bitcoin has been moving around approximately $77,000 to $78,000 during the first days of the month. However, the decline from around $80,000 does not yet confirm Rektember’s return. After nearly a quarter of monthly growth, profit-taking in the cryptocurrency market is nothing extraordinary.
The more important question will be whether bitcoin can maintain most of August’s gains in a situation where conditions in global financial markets are simultaneously deteriorating.
The biggest problem may not be Rektember, but the Fed
Historical seasonality is not the only risk this year. Perhaps not even the most important one. After the hawkish appearance of Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole, investors significantly reassessed expectations for the future development of American interest rates. Before his speech, the market gave a September rate hike about a 36 percent probability, while at the start of September it was approximately two-thirds, reports CoinDesk.
Current market data from September 2 shows the probability of a rate hike even around 67 to 70 percent, according to Reuters.
This is crucial for bitcoin. Higher interest rates increase the returns that investors can obtain from relatively safe dollar assets, while simultaneously making capital more expensive. The willingness to take risks in stocks or cryptocurrencies may therefore decline.
The development of U.S. Treasury bonds fits into the same picture. The yield on the ten-year U.S. government bond reached 4.8122 percent on September 2, the highest in nearly three years. If yields continue upward and the Fed actually raises rates, this could be a far more important factor for bitcoin’s price than the mere fact that it’s September.
Expensive oil and geopolitics have also entered the game
Another complication is the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. Renewed fighting between the United States and Iran has once again raised concerns about disruptions to oil supplies through the strategically important Persian Gulf region.
The price of North Sea Brent crude climbed to approximately $95.45 per barrel on September 2, marking a five-week high. At the same time, stock markets fell sharply: the MSCI index tracking Asia-Pacific stocks declined by two percent and Japan’s Nikkei dropped 2.9 percent.
Bitcoin, meanwhile, reacted relatively calmly during the initial geopolitical shock. At the end of August, despite rising oil prices and nervousness in stock markets, it still held near $78,000 to $79,000 and was heading toward approximately a 25 percent monthly gain.
In the short term, however, expensive oil represents more of a complication for cryptocurrencies. Higher energy prices can contribute to inflation, giving the central bank another reason to maintain or further increase interest rates.
Institutional Capital Stands Against Rektember
However, there is one significant difference compared to most historical Rektembers – today’s cryptocurrency market is no longer dependent solely on retail investors and cryptocurrency exchanges. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs are now a significant part of the market.
Before the start of September, the funds recorded a very strong series of inflows. According to trading firm Wintermute, whose data was published by CoinDesk, Bitcoin ETFs saw a total of $924 million flow in during nine consecutive positive trading sessions. Only the following Friday ended the streak with an outflow of $202 million.
However, capital returned on Monday. CoinDesk reports that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net inflow of another $217 million on August 31.
Institutional demand may change the way Bitcoin behaves during different parts of the year. Historical data from the period before the arrival of U.S. spot ETFs may therefore not have the same predictive value for the current market as it did before.
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Why Is September Actually So Problematic for Markets?
Interestingly, September weakness is not specific to cryptocurrencies alone. U.S. stocks also historically tend to post worse results during this period than during most other months.
This phenomenon is also highlighted by Cointelegraph, according to which September is historically also the weakest month for the S&P 500 index. One possible explanation is the return of investors after the summer period and portfolio reshuffling before the last quarter of the year.
For Bitcoin, the normal volatility of financial markets can then be further amplified. However, it’s important not to confuse statistical correlation with causal relationship. There is no mechanism in the Bitcoin network’s actual functioning that would automatically create downward price pressure in September. Rektember is merely the result of historical observations.
And this is where the biggest problem with calendar-based trading lies. Bitcoin has existed long enough to compile tables of monthly returns, but its price history is still incomparably shorter than, for example, the history of traditional stock indices. A few exceptionally bad years can therefore significantly shift the long-term average.
Does Rektember Represent a Bitcoin Buying Opportunity?
For a long-term investor, the name of the month itself should not be a reason to either buy or sell.
If historical averages worked as a reliable trading guide, the situation would be simple – an investor would sell Bitcoin at the end of August and buy it back at the beginning of October. However, financial markets don’t usually provide such regularities – and three positive Septembers in 2023 through 2025 are a good example of why seasonality cannot be blindly relied upon.
Likewise, the popular notion that Rektember is automatically followed by bullish “Uptober” is not a certainty either. Historical seasonal models can be an interesting supplement to investment analysis, but they do not in themselves represent a reliable forecast of future price movements.
Therefore, much more important than the calendar this September will be U.S. labor market and inflation data, the outcome of the Fed meeting, the development of geopolitical tensions, and above all the continuation or cessation of institutional demand for Bitcoin.
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What to Watch for Bitcoin Price During September 2026?
The first days of the month so far show that Bitcoin may face a more volatile period. After sharp August gains, it is moving below the $80,000 mark while global investors simultaneously face rising bond yields, expensive oil, and expectations of tighter U.S. monetary policy.
One of the nearest important data points will be the U.S. labor market report. As CoinDesk points out, August labor market data will be the last major employment report before the Fed’s September meeting. Stronger numbers could further increase bond yields and support expectations of rate hikes.
At the same time, it will be crucial whether institutional interest continues through spot ETFs. Strong demand could help balance pressure from the macroeconomic environment. A more significant outflow of money from funds combined with further growth in U.S. yields would, on the other hand, create a substantially less favorable combination for Bitcoin.
Rektember is thus facing perhaps its most interesting test in several years. History reminds investors that September used to be dangerous for Bitcoin. However, the last three years show the exact opposite, and the current market differs significantly from the times when this term originated, thanks to ETFs and much greater participation from institutional investors.
Whether Rektember actually returns in 2026 will therefore probably not be decided by the calendar. Much more will depend on what the Fed, U.S. inflation, bond yields, and investors who today gain access to Bitcoin through regulated exchange-traded funds do over the coming weeks.
