Bitcoin continues to trade around $63,000, but the market has not yet sent a convincing signal that the definitive bottom of this cycle has been formed. On-chain data, long-term technical levels, and historical analogies suggest an advanced phase of the bear market, but another significant decline still cannot be ruled out.
Don’t miss: TOP 10 countries with the fastest cryptocurrency adoption
Bitcoin remains squeezed between two critical price zones
The strongest support is represented by the realized price near $52,900. This metric shows the average price at which all existing bitcoins were last moved on the blockchain. In the same area, several other technical supports converge, so the zone between $50,000 and $53,000 may be the decisive battleground between buyers and sellers.
Equally significant are the resistances above the current price. The cost basis of short-term holders is around $69,400, where many recent buyers would break even. Another obstacle is the True Market Mean near $76,400. Weak volumes show that neither panicking sellers nor convinced buyers have taken control of the market yet.
Read more: Anycoin review
Historical signals point to a near bottom, but the market may be waiting for a final washout
Previous bitcoin cycles have evolved in surprisingly similar time intervals, with significant bottoms forming approximately 204 weeks apart. If this pattern repeats, the current cycle could approach its bottom during the coming months. The 200-week moving average also suggests that bitcoin is entering a historically important accumulation area.
However, some typical signs of final capitulation are still missing. Weekly RSI has not yet created a significant bullish divergence and the Q9 indicator has not reached as deeply oversold values as during previous bottoms. The market may therefore pull the price down toward $50,000 once more and test liquidity at lower levels. Analysts at companies such as Glassnode will therefore carefully monitor in the coming weeks whether confirmation of a true reversal appears.
You might also like: crypto4me review
