Investors who bought bitcoin near $107,000 are gradually realizing losses and exiting their positions. However, on-chain data suggests that the strongest wave of selling pressure is beginning to weaken, which has historically often accompanied the final phase of a bear market.
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Selling pressure from previous cycle holders is losing strength
Analysts are particularly monitoring the behavior of investors who have held bitcoin for one to two years. Many of them bought during the late phase of the previous bull cycle, when the price ranged between $62,800 and $107,000. After the subsequent drop, their positions fell deep into losses and some holders began using every price recovery to exit the market.
The thirty-day average of realized losses for this group initially rose sharply, but has since turned downward. Such a development may indicate that the most frightened investors have already sold their coins and the supply of bitcoins coming to market is gradually weakening. This is not a definitive confirmation of a bottom, but one of the first signals that market dynamics are beginning to change.
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The $69,000 level will test the real strength of buyers
Another decisive point will be the area around $69,000, where the average purchase price of short-term holders is located. Upon returning to this level, investors who are currently at a loss may begin selling in an attempt to exit the market without significant damage. The first test of this level may therefore bring strong volatility.
If bitcoin breaks through the $69,000 level and maintains it as support, the probability will increase that buyers can absorb the remaining supply. Rejection, on the other hand, could prolong consolidation and reopen space for lower prices. Analysts at Glassnode will therefore monitor not only the return to this level itself, but primarily whether bitcoin can maintain itself above it long-term.
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