While Bitcoin remains one of the most closely watched assets today, its resilience has its limits. If U.S. stocks entered a deep sell-off, according to technical analyst Jesse Olson’s crisis scenario, there could be room for a decline to the $24,000 level.
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Bitcoin is not an isolated island
In his analysis, Olson is not saying that a Bitcoin drop to $24,000 is the most likely scenario. Rather, he is pointing to a threshold that could come into play in the event of an exceptionally strong macroeconomic shock. According to him, Bitcoin would reach this area primarily if the U.S. stock market fell by more than half.
This is an important detail. In such a case, the problem would not start within the cryptocurrency market, but on Wall Street. Bitcoin is often described as an alternative to the traditional financial system, yet during periods of panic, investors typically dump everything they perceive as risky. And cryptocurrencies still fall into this category, especially when the market is seeking cash, safety, and liquidity.
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Major players are waiting for confirmation of a reversal
Current data, moreover, does not show institutions aggressively buying up Bitcoin in large volumes. The Coinbase Premium Index remained mostly in negative territory in 2026, indicating weaker activity from U.S. professional investors. They typically do not try to catch the perfect bottom but wait for a more stable trend, lower volatility, and clearer evidence that the market has the strength to grow again.
Similar caution is also suggested by flows in spot Bitcoin ETFs, which have recorded net outflows in the billions of dollars since May. The crisis scenario is therefore not a prediction, but a warning. If stock markets calm down and institutional demand returns, Bitcoin may leave such levels far behind. However, if Wall Street loses its footing, the $24,000 threshold could become a test that reveals how much confidence in Bitcoin truly remains.
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