Bitcoin has fallen below the average purchase price of investors who entered the market over the past one to three months. According to analytical data, it has thereby lost a key level that acted as reliable technical support during the growth phases. The 77,700 USD threshold may now turn into resistance, through which it will be difficult to push the price back up. Rising selling pressure is also gradually spreading to the entire group of short-term holders, whose average purchase price is around 75,832 USD, and failure to quickly reclaim these levels may open the door to a significantly deeper drop.
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Bitcoin Below 77,700 USD: Former Support Becomes Dangerous Resistance
On-chain data from the CryptoQuant analytics platform shows that bitcoin is currently trading below the realized price of investors who have held their coins for one to three months, which sits at 77,700 USD. With the market price having dropped to 77,250 USD, this group of more speculative market participants has found itself in an open unrealized loss. These investors are the most sensitive to short-term fluctuations, and if the price attempts to return to their purchase levels, they may start selling en masse at breakeven, turning the former buying support into a firm price barrier.
While bitcoin’s spot price has been declining in recent weeks, this group’s average acquisition cost has been gradually rising, which has dangerously narrowed the gap between the two values and increased the market’s overall vulnerability. Breaking this level marks a major reversal of the prevailing trend, as bitcoin had stayed continuously above this group’s purchase price since August 19. If the weakening continues, the next critical zone, corresponding to an aggregate loss of roughly 12% for these buyers, lies at 68,400 USD, where the market also sought a bottom during a similar sell-off in early June.
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Bitcoin Tests Short-Term Holders: MVRV Indicator Dangerously Close to Tipping Point
Heightened risk now also threatens the broader segment of short-term holders (Short-Term Holders), who hold assets for less than 155 days and whose average realized price stands at 75,832 USD. Analysts assess the condition of this group using the MVRV indicator, which compares market capitalization with the price at which coins last moved on the blockchain. The current MVRV value for short-term holders has dropped to 1.012, which is very close to the critical value of 1.0, the exact boundary between aggregate profit and loss for the entire group.
A drop of the MVRV indicator deeper into the 0.85 to 0.99 range would mark a zone of tactical capitulation, in which some inexperienced investors resort to panic selling under the pressure of mounting losses. For the market’s further direction, it will be crucial whether bitcoin manages to regain the 77,700 USD area and stabilize buyer confidence. If the recovery fails, traders’ attention will definitively shift to testing the 75,832 USD level and then 68,400 USD, which will reveal the true extent of the current institutional and retail selling pressure.
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Sources:
- On-chain analytics and realized price: CryptoQuant – Short-Term Holder Metrics & Price Bands
- Price terminal and market data: KryptoMagazín Terminal – Bitcoin Price Development
- Technical analysis and charts: TradingView – BTC/USD Interactive Chart
- Blockchain metrics and the MVRV ratio: Glassnode Studio – On-chain Market Indicators
Photo source: AI-generated (Adobe Stock)
