Bitcoin has had an extraordinarily tough week. A net weekly loss of around 14% ranks among the strongest declines of the entire current bear market and shows once again that selling pressure has not yet disappeared from the market. However, such painful shakeouts often come in the final phases of a cycle, when conditions begin to form for a new price bottom.
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The market is approaching key levels
According to the technical scenario, the probability is increasing that bitcoin may test the area around $52,000 in the foreseeable future. This level has long acted as an important price target, but the market may not stop exactly at it. Bitcoin tends to briefly undershoot key levels during times of deteriorating sentiment, so a deeper drop toward significantly lower prices cannot be ruled out either.
At the same time, current prices are starting to make more sense for a gradual DCA strategy. However, this does not automatically mean that the final bottom is confirmed. The bottom for bitcoin typically does not form during a single week, but as a process that can take months and during which the market repeatedly tests investors’ patience.
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Short-term holders are under pressure again
Since bitcoin’s price peak of $126,000, this is already the third situation where the share of short-term holder supply at a loss has reached the 95% threshold. This means that most investors who bought relatively recently are now sitting on uncomfortable losses and the market is entering a phase of strong stress again.
Short-term holders tend to be the most vulnerable during such periods. They often buy late, lack sufficient conviction, and panic quickly during sharp declines. If their capitulation deepens further, it could be a painful but necessary phase of market cleansing before a healthier foundation emerges for the next bull trend. This is also why BITmarkets has long emphasized the importance of a gradual approach, risk management, and the ability to view declines in the broader context of the entire market cycle.
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