Bitcoin has gone through a period that once again tested investor patience. After a significant drop from October highs, the market began questioning whether the current cycle had already lost momentum. However, some long-term models suggest that this year may be far from over for bitcoin. One of them predicts that the price could move within a wide range from $90,000 to $255,000 by the end of 2026.
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Bitcoin Decay Channel model predicts return to growth
The Bitcoin Decay Channel model, highlighted by analyst Sminston, has captured market attention. This model tracks the long-term price development of bitcoin on a logarithmic scale and is based on the assumption that each subsequent cycle brings proportionally weaker growth than the previous one. In other words, bitcoin may no longer grow as explosively as in its early years, but even a slower pace can mean very significant movement in absolute numbers at its current price level.
According to the model’s current calculations, the conservative range for the end of 2026 is between $90,000 and $255,000. For the end of 2027, the model shows an even wider range, approximately from $128,000 to $308,000. Its proponents point out that historical bitcoin peaks in 2013, 2017, and 2021 formed near the upper bands of similar long-term structures. Conversely, more significant bottoms repeatedly returned closer to the lower zones. The current rebound from spring values may therefore, according to this view, represent not just short-term relief but a possible return of buyers in the area of long-term support.
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Optimism tempered by weaker momentum and risk of further selloff
However, even a strongly bullish model doesn’t guarantee further growth. The technical picture of the market remains mixed, and some traders warn that bitcoin has not yet shown clear confirmation of a strong trend reversal. According to some interpretations, structures that may resemble bearish continuation patterns still appear in the chart. If such a scenario were to materialize, the market could retest lower price levels and the optimistic range would shift more into theoretical territory.
On the other hand, some onchain data provides a slightly more stable signal. The HODL Waves indicator from CryptoQuant suggests that longer-term holders may be helping to form a higher bottom in the $65,900 to $70,500 range. The zone around $70,500 may thus be crucial for further development. Large financial institutions also offer a more cautious view, anticipating growth while leaving room for weaker scenarios. Institutional demand, ETF developments, and corporate purchases remain important factors. If the interest from major players persists, the market may continue to monitor the activity of companies like BlackRock, whose products and capital flows have an increasingly significant impact on bitcoin sentiment.
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