Quantum Computers: The cryptocurrency world is facing another potential threat, this time unrelated to regulations or exchange crashes. According to a new report by Project Eleven, digital assets worth over $3 trillion could be at risk within the next few years. The reason is the rapid development of quantum computers, which could potentially break the current cryptographic security of Bitcoin and other blockchain networks in the future.
The authors of the 110-page report warn that the problem doesn’t only concern cryptocurrencies. The same types of encryption are currently used by banking systems, cloud infrastructure, authentication networks, and military communications. If a sufficiently powerful quantum computer were to be created, it could fundamentally compromise the security of the digital world.
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Quantum Computers as Potential Revolution and Security Problem
Current cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin and Ethereum, rely on so-called elliptic curve cryptography. This protects digital wallets and enables secure transaction signing. However, according to Project Eleven, this type of security may be vulnerable to quantum computers in the future.
The report highlights the use of Shor’s algorithm, which could theoretically allow private keys to be derived from public addresses. According to the report’s authors, the so-called “Q-Day”, the moment when a quantum computer capable of breaking commonly used cryptography emerges, could arrive as early as 2030. At the latest, according to estimates, it should happen by 2033.
“Our analysis suggests that based on current trends, Q-Day is more likely to occur by 2033 than not,” states the Project Eleven report.
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It’s Not Just About Cryptocurrencies
The fundamental problem lies in the fact that a large part of digital infrastructure today uses the same principle of public and private keys. Theoretically, not only blockchains and stablecoins could be at risk, but also online banking, cloud services, digital identities, and military systems.
Project Eleven therefore claims that the transition to so-called post-quantum cryptography will be one of the biggest technological projects of the next decade. And time may be the biggest enemy.
Migration of large systems typically takes five to ten years, sometimes even longer. For decentralized networks like Bitcoin, the situation is even more complicated.
Bitcoin May Hit Its Own Decentralization
Project Eleven CEO Alex Pruden warns that the technical side of the problem itself may not be the biggest risk. According to him, the biggest obstacle is coordinating the entire ecosystem.
For Bitcoin to transition to new, quantum-resistant security, users, exchanges, miners, wallet providers, and custodial services would all have to participate simultaneously. According to the report, this is not a technical problem, but primarily a matter of willingness, coordination, and cost.
The report also recalls the historical example of the SegWit upgrade, which was significantly simpler compared to quantum migration. Nevertheless, it took more than two years to activate, and its implementation sparked fierce disputes in the community and the creation of a separate blockchain.
According to Pruden, Bitcoin’s transition to post-quantum cryptography may be even more complex than the Taproot upgrade. The discussion also opens up a sensitive question about what will happen to potentially vulnerable bitcoins.
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What Will Happen to “Vulnerable” Bitcoins?
Pruden stated in the report that he personally tends to support the option of “recycling” threatened bitcoins back into circulation, rather than having them potentially acquired by a quantum attacker in the future.
According to estimates, approximately 5.6 to 6.9 million BTC may be vulnerable today. At current prices, this represents a value of around $500 billion.
However, this very debate collides with one of Bitcoin’s fundamental principles—immutability of rules and protection of property rights. As the report itself points out, the quantum threat creates tension between Bitcoin’s philosophy of a strictly limited supply and the need to protect the network from potential security collapse.
Solana Is Already Starting Preparations
Project Eleven recently announced a collaboration with the Solana Foundation, aimed at helping prepare the Solana network for future quantum threats.
The entire debate remains largely theoretical for now, as quantum computers capable of breaking modern cryptography do not yet exist. However, experts warn that similar technological transitions require many years of preparation, which is precisely why this topic is becoming increasingly prominent in the cryptocurrency world.
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