Bitcoin has been trading around $65,000 for several weeks now, while volatility and trading volumes remain subdued. Technical indicators, long-term price models, miner costs, and on-chain data collectively suggest that the end of the bear cycle is approaching, though one more significant drop cannot be ruled out.
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Technical and cyclical models await the final move
The two-month Stochastic RSI has dropped deep into oversold territory and its curves are approaching a bullish crossover. Similar signals in previous cycles preceded trend reversals, but their impact typically materialized only after several months due to the long timeframe. This supports a scenario where a new growth trend might not begin until autumn, while the final price bottom is yet to be confirmed.
A similar picture is offered by the Power Law model, which estimates the long-term bottom for the current cycle near $61,000. Although Bitcoin has briefly dipped below this level, previous cycles have shown that price can significantly undershoot theoretical models. A decline below $60,000 therefore remains a realistic possibility, especially if selling pressure increases again in the market.
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Miners are under pressure, on-chain data opens buying zone
Estimated production costs of bitcoin are hovering around $80,000, significantly above the current market price. Miners are thus facing deteriorating operational economics and weaker companies may be forced to sell their reserves. A similarly significant gap between price and costs also appeared in 2018, when bitcoin weakened sharply before forming the final bottom. From a long-term perspective, however, this is also a potential bullish signal, as price has historically returned to production costs over time.
The MVRV Z-Score has meanwhile entered a zone that was historically favorable for regular DCA purchases. However, Bitcoin has only been in this zone for a short time and trading volumes have yet to confirm a convincing reversal. The four monitored indicators thus send a similar message: the market is likely approaching the end of the cycle, but the path to the actual bottom may lead through one more painful move downward.
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