Bitcoin moved in a short period of time from around $75,000 to above $86,000, and the technical picture of the market has changed significantly. This isn’t just about the price itself. The cryptocurrency broke above its long-term moving average as well as an important resistance level, while significant capital began flowing back into spot ETFs. History shows that a similar combination has already accompanied the end of a bear phase several times.
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The market has broken through two barriers that were holding back growth until recently
The first major change was a weekly close above the 50-week moving average. Bitcoin ended the week on Coinbase at $81,159, while the tracked average stood at around $78,788. The cryptocurrency had not closed a week above this level for more than ten months. According to an analysis by Alex Thorn of Galaxy Research, a similar return above the 50-week average helped confirm the bottom in four out of five completed bear markets.
Another obstacle was the zone around $83,000. Bitcoin broke through this during the current rally as well, subsequently climbing above $86,000, the highest level since January. From a technical standpoint, this removed one of the significant lower highs on the long-term chart. As a result, market attention is shifting from the question of whether bitcoin can break through resistance to whether it can turn these newly gained levels into support.
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A billion dollars from ETFs is helping, but the real test is yet to come
The chart isn’t the only thing behind the growth. Between September 14 and 21, approximately $1.01 billion flowed into U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs. The movement was also amplified by short position liquidations, which added further buying pressure. Since the July low of around $57,000, bitcoin has come a long way, and the current rally is supported not only by technical signals but also by a portion of spot capital.
History, however, also warns against drawing conclusions too quickly. A return above the 50-week average has not been a foolproof signal in the past, and in several cases it was followed by yet another new low. The decisive factor will therefore be any potential correction. If bitcoin holds above $83,000 and starts forming higher lows, the long-term market structure will gain further confirmation. The development of these levels can be tracked, for example, on the TradingView website, which clearly shows the relationship between price and long-term moving averages.
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