Bitcoin is holding around $64,000, and at first glance, it may seem that the worst part of the bear market is over. Some technical and on-chain signals indeed show that the market is approaching a turning point. However, one crucial ingredient is still missing: real panic. And it’s precisely the absence of significant capitulation that leaves open the scenario that bitcoin may test investors’ nerves once more before the next growth cycle.
Don’t miss: Binance seeks new MiCA license in EU
Support around $60,000 may decide the entire story
Bitcoin’s current price structure resembles periods when the market is trying to find balance between exhausted sellers and cautious buyers. The key point remains the area around $60,000. If bitcoin retests it and manages to hold above it, this could be one of the strongest signals that a long-term bottom is indeed forming. However, if the support doesn’t hold, space for a sharper move downward will quickly open up.
Also interesting is the contrast between the length of the current correction and its intensity. On-chain data suggests that bitcoin is going through one of its longest weak phases since 2022, but the decline itself doesn’t seem as destructive as during previous cyclical lows. The market is more tired than scared. This could be the problem, because historical bottoms often didn’t form in apathy, but at moments when investors felt there was nothing left to salvage.
Read more: Anycoin review
Technicals are improving, but the final shake-out still hangs in the air
The monthly RSI is moving in an area that has historically accompanied significant cyclical lows. This is an important argument for bulls, but it’s not a signal for immediate growth. Similar phases have dragged on for months in the past, during which the market gradually built a foundation for a new trend. If history repeats itself at least partially, bitcoin may be close to a bottom without new growth starting immediately.
Moreover, macro factors are entering the picture. Weakening inflation expectations may gradually create a more favorable environment for risk assets, but the market remains vulnerable in the short term. Data monitored by analytics platform Glassnode also reminds us that the current market phase may not yet have a definitive bottom behind it. Two price levels are therefore crucial: a return above $70,000 with strong volumes would significantly weaken the scenario of another washout, while a drop below $60,000 accompanied by liquidations could trigger precisely that missing capitulation phase. Paradoxically, the worst move could come at a moment when the end of the bear market is relatively close.
You might also like: Bitcoin awaits the Fed
