The bitcoin market remains uncertain. Although the price has briefly recovered and returned above $74,000, technical and macro signals suggest that the final bottom may not yet be in place. On the contrary – there is still room for further decline.
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The technicals are clear: the rally lacks solid foundations
Bitcoin has managed to break higher in the short term, but the market structure still resembles a bearish flag. This is a formation that typically signals a continuation of the decline. Moreover, momentum remains weak and volumes have yet to provide sufficient confirmation of a reversal.
Another interesting factor is the CME gap in the $80,000 area. The market tends to fill these gaps, which could bring short-term gains. However, strong resistance exists precisely in this zone, which could quickly halt any bounce.
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History suggests: the final bottom could be lower
From a long-term perspective, bitcoin often finds its bottom between the 200-week and 300-week moving averages. While the first level has already been nearly tested, the second sits just above the $50,000 mark. And that is precisely where a final market flush could occur.
Macroeconomic context also comes into play. Credit spreads remain unusually low, even though bitcoin has already weakened significantly. If this imbalance begins to correct itself, it could mean further pressure on risk assets – something analysts at JPMorgan have been warning about for some time. In other words – the worst may yet be to come.
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