Analysts at CryptoVision Research point out that spot ETFs have seen an outflow of approximately 32% of capital in a matter of weeks, pushing Bitcoin down to $80,000 and indicating a rapid change in sentiment. The sell-off was more aggressive than in earlier stages of the cycle and suggests that investors are reducing their overall exposure to risky assets.
Aggressive outflows as a signal of a change in sentiment
Total assets under management fell back to May levels, and the decline occurred without any significant external events, which, according to CryptoVision Research, indicates a structural problem rather than a reaction to a one-off shock. If sentiment does not stabilize, fluctuations in ETF flows may further amplify volatility and deepen bitcoin price movements.
This aggressiveness of outflows is a significant warning, as it is not driven by one specific factor, but by an overall decline in investors’ willingness to hold risky assets. The market is thus more sensitive to sharp movements and rapid changes in sentiment.
Could Bitcoin fall to the CME gap?
The chart shows an unfilled CME gap from 2020 around the price of $9,615, which corresponds to a 92% decline from the all-time high. Although most gaps have historically been filled, a return to this level would require an extreme sell-off, massive capitulation, and a fundamental change in long-term sentiment, which CryptoVision Research considers a rather theoretical possibility.
A more realistic decline would be around 70%, or towards $38,000, which is in line with previous cycles. Bitcoin has repeatedly fallen by 77-93% in the past, and the nature of these bearish phases tends to be aggressive due to leveraged positions and emotional reactions from retail investors.
