Bitcoin rose above $114,000 for the first time since the end of August. Investors are responding to slowing inflation and expectations of interest rate cuts, with historical patterns and on-chain metrics pointing to potential growth for the cryptocurrency.
Bitcoin rises after inflation slows
The rise in bitcoin came shortly after the release of the August Producer Price Index (PPI), which slowed to 2.6% year-on-year, compared to the expected 3.3%. The core PPI, adjusted for food and energy, fell to 2.8% and lagged behind the market consensus of 3.5%. On a monthly basis, the index even fell into negative territory. The revision of July data and the correction of the US labor market, which retroactively deducted 911,000 jobs, increase the likelihood of interest rate cuts.
The historical development of Bitcoin shows that rate cuts often trigger a period of increased volatility, followed by a rise in the price of cryptocurrency. Analysts are monitoring the key on-chain metrics MVRV and Whale Ratio – the former compares Bitcoin’s market capitalization with its realized capitalization, while the latter tracks the activity of large holders. These indicators help to estimate when the market is undervalued and when a correction is imminent.
History repeats itself
Data from the CryptoQuant platform shows that during the interest rate cut in March 2020, there were sharp sell-offs and the MVRV fell towards 1, while the Whale Ratio rose sharply. As liquidity began to pump into the market, both indicators signaled accumulation and a subsequent bullish trend, which repeated at the end of 2024.
If history repeats itself, the expected easing of the Federal Reserve‘s monetary policy in 2025 could initially cause volatility, but at the same time create enough liquidity for Bitcoin to head towards new price highs. Investors are now watching a combination of macroeconomic data and on-chain metrics to estimate the optimal timing for entering the market.
