Growing concerns about the rise of quantum computers open a new chapter in the debate over Bitcoin’s long-term value. Some analysts warn that a technological breakthrough could disrupt its scarcity and position as digital gold.
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A Threat That Could Rewrite the Rules
On-chain analyst Willy Woo warns of a scenario known as Day Q – the moment when a quantum computer can break current cryptographic security. If private keys could be derived from public ones, it would threaten the very foundation of Bitcoin’s network security.
Particularly at risk would be so-called lost coins. It is estimated that approximately four million BTC – roughly one-quarter to one-third of the total supply – lies on addresses whose keys are irretrievably lost. In the event of a quantum attack, these funds could theoretically return to circulation, which would significantly alter supply dynamics.
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Human Rights Foundation: Bitcoin Between Gold and the Quantum Era
One discussed possibility is freezing threatened coins through a hard fork. Such intervention would, however, open fundamental questions regarding network immutability, fungibility of coins, and protection of property rights. Woo estimates the probability of such a step actually occurring at roughly 25%, while giving greater weight to the scenario that the rules would remain unchanged.
At the same time, views are emerging that Bitcoin has sufficient time to adapt. The transition to post-quantum cryptography would likely proceed gradually, through new types of addresses and key management updates. Even if some “lost” coins were reactivated, according to Alex Gladstein of the Human Rights Foundation, they would not necessarily immediately hit the market; rather, they could be accumulated by a state or another powerful player. Quantum risk thus becomes not only a technological factor but also a macroeconomic one, which may influence Bitcoin’s relationship to gold and its role in the global financial system.
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