The difference between the futures and spot price of Bitcoin has fallen into negative territory, signaling a significant shift in trader sentiment toward risk reduction. For the first time since March, futures are trading below the spot price, eliminating the usual premium value typical of a market with high demand for leveraged positions. This shift suggests that investors currently view risk as less attractive and expect weaker price performance.
Negative spread shows bearish pressure, but history suggests a possible reversal
A negative spread usually appears during position closing or when the market is preparing for a period of increased volatility. Bitcoin is currently trading in the so-called “Base Zone,” which is associated with higher selling pressure and more cautious exposure management. Both the seven-day and thirty-day moving averages are pointing downwards, confirming the dominance of bears, but historical data shows that these situations have often preceded the formation of local bottoms during bull cycles.
However, if conditions begin to resemble those of January 2022, the same signal could indicate the beginning of a deeper decline. An important indicator of a change in sentiment would be a return of the spread above 0-0.5%, which would suggest stabilization. At the same time, the leverage ratio on the futures market is moving towards 0.3, which means a healthier market structure, lower risk of liquidations, and a more solid foundation for a possible resumption of growth.
Internal exchange transactions support the bearish outlook
According to analyst Pelin Ay, the sharp increase in internal transfers on exchanges is also contributing to the current bearish narrative. Although these transactions are not a direct indicator of sales, they correlate in the long term with turbulent market phases and significant movements by large participants. Analysts at BITmarkets point out that the end of 2024 and the beginning of 2025 showed a clear pattern: during rapid price rallies, internal transfer activity increases, followed by significant price corrections.
At the beginning of November, activity significantly exceeded the normal values of 5-10 and coincided with Bitcoin’s decline from over $110,000 to around $90,000. The combination of a negative spread, rising internal transactions, and accelerating bearish momentum thus creates an environment in which Bitcoin is likely to continue searching for its market bottom.
