Bitcoin is currently trading around the 68,000 USD mark, with the market experiencing irregular waves of selling pressure. Nevertheless, on-chain data is revealing signals that may indicate a stabilization phase. Key metrics are returning to long-term averages, which historically has often preceded periods of consolidation or gradual recovery in spot demand.
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MVRV Signals Return to Fair Valuation
Analyst Chris Beamish from Glassnode points out that the MVRV indicator (Market Value to Realized Value) has returned to its long-term average after previously moving above the +1 standard deviation level. This indicator compares market capitalization with realized capitalization and helps determine whether bitcoin holders are predominantly in profit or loss.
The current return to average suggests a rebalancing of previous overheating rather than entry into a deeply undervalued phase. The market is thus reaching an equilibrium band that may serve as a foundation for further development, but not automatically as a springboard for a new growth impulse.
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Realized Capitalization and Volumes Show Caution
A significant factor remains the development of realized capitalization. It has declined from November’s peak of 1.12 trillion USD to approximately 1.09 trillion USD, representing a drop of roughly 33 billion USD. A thirty-day change of -2.26% confirms that capital continues to flow out of the market, and new liquidity has yet been unable to reverse the trend.
According to researcher Axel Adler Jr., the largest portion of supply—specifically 25.9%—is now held by investors with a 3 to 6-month time horizon. Many of these positions were opened near cyclical peaks and are currently underwater. The situation thus appears neutrally defensive: the market is not yet experiencing mass capitulation, but at the same time lacks a more pronounced inflow of new capital that would restore growth in realized capitalization.
Exchange data adds to this picture. Spot cumulative volume delta (CVD) has improved from -177.1 million USD to -161.5 million USD, indicating weakening aggressive selling. On the other hand, total daily spot volume has declined from 7.6 billion USD to 6 billion USD. Lower activity means reduced market participation and greater price sensitivity to larger orders.
Bitcoin is thus moving in a zone where supply is gradually being absorbed and selling pressure is easing. To confirm a stronger reversal, however, it would require not only CVD stabilization but also a renewal of realized capitalization growth and a return to higher trading volumes. Without these factors, the market may remain in a consolidation phase longer than investors expect.
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