Bitcoin is holding steady at around $68,000, with the $60,000 range acting as solid support and the $71,000 range as clear resistance. The market thus remains squeezed between two key levels, and any relief in the form of more significant growth is still on hold.
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The market is looking for balance, not a miraculous turnaround
In the coming weeks, consolidation is more likely than a dynamic trend. Bitcoin will probably create a structure from which the next direction will emerge. The worst-case scenario anticipates another sharp sell-off, but even selling pressure has its limits and is gradually running out.
Moreover, history shows that the price bottom is not a one-time event. It is not a single candle or a dramatic turnaround in a matter of days. The bottom is a process — a period when supply is exhausted, sentiment is extremely negative, and the market is gradually finding a new equilibrium price.
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Signs of the late stage of a bear market
One of the key indicators from past cycles is the relationship between the price of Bitcoin and the average purchase price of long-term holders (LTH). Historically, truly significant bottoms have only formed when the market price has fallen below their average. Today, this level is slightly above $40,000. If the past scenario were to repeat itself, there could be room for a decline towards the $30,000 area, where a longer accumulation phase could subsequently develop.
Sharpe’s ratio also offers an interesting perspective. It has fallen deep into negative territory and reached levels that we have seen in the past near long-term lows. Such extremes do not mean that the bottom has definitely been reached, but they do indicate a growing asymmetry between risk and potential return. The market is in a phase of searching for a new normal—and it is precisely in these periods that the foundations of the next cycle are laid, as the team of analysts at BITmarkets has long pointed out in its analyses.
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