According to the Polymarket prediction platform, the probability that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will approve a spot ETF for the Solana cryptocurrency this year has risen to over 80%. However, despite growing investor optimism, regulatory uncertainties remain.
Investor optimism is growing
On the prediction market Polymarket, bets on Solana’s success in the spot ETF space are increasing. The probability of the fund being approved in 2025 is currently 83%, up 9% from previous estimates. This development reflects growing investor confidence that Solana will join cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum, which already have ETFs.
Meanwhile, the SEC is reviewing a proposal by the NYSE Arca exchange to change its rules to allow the listing of the Bitwise 10 Crypto Index Fund. This fund includes not only Bitcoin and Ethereum, but also Solana. However, the commission recently postponed its decision by 60 days, moving the new deadline to the end of July 2025.
Questions about the staking fund
In addition to the spot ETF proposal, an innovative idea for a so-called staking fund has also appeared on the table. REX Shares and Osprey Funds want to create a fund that would invest in Solana and Ethereum while using half of its assets for staking. The goal is to increase investor returns through staking rewards.
However, the SEC has expressed concerns about whether the proposed model meets the definition of an investment company under the Investment Company Act. It is this uncertainty that could slow down or completely block the approval of such a fund, showing that despite strong market interest, the regulator still has the final say.
