On 22 May 2025, Bitcoin reached a new all-time high of $111,970, sparking optimism in the market. Many investors believe that this growth may continue, but according to analysts, it is unclear whether this trend will continue in the upcoming third quarter. Where will Bitcoin go next?
Historically weak third quarter for Bitcoin
The third quarter has historically been the weakest period for Bitcoin. Over the past 11 years, Bitcoin has averaged only a 6.03% return. In contrast, the fourth quarter has proven to be the best performing quarter. Although some positive signs point to possible growth, analysts warn of the risk of consolidation or a slight correction, which could be a healthy prerequisite for future growth.
In recent weeks, there has been significant profit-taking by short-term holders. Those who held bitcoin for less than 155 days realised gains of more than $11.4 billion. This means that the market may have entered a correction phase, which is often caused by profit-taking and investor nervousness ahead of interest rate decisions.
Macroeconomic decisions and market impact
Investors are closely watching the US Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decision. Scheduled for 18 June, this move could have a significant impact on the markets. In May, the Fed left rates at 4.25% to 4.50%, indicating a stable but not entirely clear economic outlook.
Given the growing interest of institutions in Bitcoin, their influence on the market is expected to grow in the coming months.
Institutional investors, who typically have larger capital and longer investment horizons, can help stabilise the market and provide it with the necessary liquidity. This trend could positively affect the price of bitcoin once the market stabilises after the recent corrections and nervousness associated with macroeconomic factors.
