Bitcoin could see significant growth as late as 2026, deviating from its traditional four-year halving cycle. According to Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, the cryptocurrency market is undergoing fundamental changes due to increased regulation, institutional entry, and a changing economic environment. According to him, old patterns are no longer valid and halving is losing its significance.
The end of the four-year cycle?
“I would bet that 2026 will be the year of bitcoin‘s rise,” Hougan said. According to him, each halving has less impact with each cycle, and the current environment of low interest rates plays into the hands of cryptocurrencies. Since April, for example, Donald Trump has been openly pushing the US Fed to start cutting rates – and that could be a strong growth impetus for Bitcoin. Greater regulatory certainty and the ongoing institutionalization of the crypto market, which reduces the risk of sharp declines, are also contributing to lower volatility.
However, Hougan also points to potential threats. He sees the increasingly common practice of companies holding bitcoin on their balance sheets as a risk, which could have a negative impact on the price in times of crisis. In the short term, he therefore does not expect a “super cycle,” but rather gradual and sustainable growth than a sharp price jump. Nevertheless, he admits that volatility will not disappear from the market. Some analysts also warn that history may repeat itself and that if the 2020 scenario were to repeat itself, the peak of the current cycle could come as early as October 2025, roughly 550 days after this year’s halving.
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