Bitcoin briefly rose to $94,000 but then corrected. The market remains cautious due to uncertainty in the US and traders’ reluctance to bet on further growth.
Tension ahead of the Fed’s decision
Bitcoin lost $2,650 after US stocks reacted to concerns about the labor market and overvalued tech companies. Investors are waiting for Wednesday’s Fed decision, and despite the expected 0.25% rate cut, the market lacks appetite for risk. The monthly futures premium remains below the neutral 5% threshold, which, according to CryptoCompare.com, confirms weak demand for long leveraged positions.
Uncertainty is also heightened by the postponement of key macro data due to the budget stalemate in the US. A published report showed that over 71,000 people were laid off in November, while the US real estate market remains under pressure, with 15% of agreed home purchases canceled in October and the median asking price falling slightly year-on-year in November.
Weak capital flows and signals from China
Bitcoin continues to lag behind the stock market, even though the S&P 500 index is only 1.2% below its historic high. The decline below $90,000 was accelerated by the forced liquidation of $92 million in longs, and big players are paying a 13% premium for put options, typical of bearish sentiment. However, the $90,000 mark is still holding as an important support level.
The retreat of traders in China, where stablecoins are selling below the official yuan exchange rate, is also having a negative effect, indicating a strong risk aversion. In addition, US spot ETFs have not attracted any significant new funds in two weeks. Future growth towards $100,000 will therefore likely depend on improvements in the US labor and real estate markets, rather than on a single decision by the central bank.
