After several shakeouts on Tuesday, Bitcoin revived and traded near the $114,000 mark during the day. The market seemed to be heading for a third test of the low, but instead, there was an unexpected upward rotation – and then back down again. Is this just a short-term respite or the beginning of the end of the growth cycle?
A market without a clear direction
From a technical perspective, the latest movement makes sense. Bitcoin repeatedly tested the liquid pool around $107,000, which acts as a magnet for the price. However, unsuccessful rebounds from this zone suggest that buyers are losing strength and the market may be close to exhaustion.
Almost two weeks have passed since the big drop on October 10, and nervousness in the market is slowly disappearing. There has been no negative news, and the mood is optimistic, perhaps even too optimistic. Historically, each halving has been followed by a sharp rise, a peak, and then a correction. It has been 550 days since the last halving in April 2024, which could mean that Bitcoin is at the peak of its cycle.
Changing market dynamics
However, the current market is significantly different from the past. The influence of institutional capital, the advent of spot ETFs, and the wider adoption of cryptocurrencies may prolong the cycle. Analysts from leading crypto exchanges point out that the absence of the typical “FOMO peak” may indicate that even a potential bear market will not be as deep as before.
In the past, the price of Bitcoin has typically fallen by more than 80% from its historical high. If this pattern repeats itself, the price could fall below $25,000. In addition, Bitcoin has been moving sideways since mid-July, which is related to the cooling of corporate purchases within “BTC treasuries.” These were one of the main drivers of growth in the past year.
