Bitcoin is holding above the $71,000 mark and despite only modest gains, the market is beginning to show signs of increasing momentum. However, some analysts warn that current developments may be only a transitional phase before one final decline that could definitively close the current bear cycle.
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Technical Structure Suggests Possible Bottom-Hunting
Bitcoin has been respecting the boundaries of a descending channel quite precisely in recent weeks. If this technical pattern holds, the market could gradually move lower over the coming months and seek its final price minimum. Timing-wise, such a scenario could unfold during the period between late spring and early summer.
One probable scenario is a decline toward the area around $50,000, where, according to classical technical analysis, selling pressure could begin to be absorbed more significantly. However, a deeper short-term drop cannot be ruled out either, for example below the $40,000 level, which could serve as a typical “shakeout” of weaker investors before a potential trend reversal.
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History May Repeat Itself
The current market structure, moreover, resembles the situation from the spring-summer transition of 2022 in many respects. Back then, bitcoin was moving within a relatively narrow sideways band, and several attempts at growth ended unsuccessfully, which ultimately led to a more significant price decline.
According to analysts from the investment firm BlackRock, such a scenario could mean that any further decline would be one of the final stages of the current bear market. Following a period of consolidation, a new long-term growth trend could then begin to form, which would direct bitcoin toward higher price levels once again.
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