Bitcoin entered February under heavy pressure. A weekly close just below $77,000 sent the price below the 100-week moving average for the first time since October 2023—a level that has often separated bullish optimism from long periods of uncertainty in the past. Official information about Bitcoin technology.
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The key average has fallen. What does this mean for the market?
The 100-week moving average is one of Bitcoin’s most respected long-term indicators. When the price stays above this threshold, the market is usually considered structurally strong. However, historically, its loss has rarely meant a quick return of buyers.
On the contrary, in past cycles, months, sometimes even years, of consolidation and a gradual search for the bottom often followed. This is one of the reasons why analysts are increasingly expressing the view that the current development may mark the beginning of a new bearish phase, rather than just a short-term fluctuation.
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History and macroeconomics are pushing against growth
Past experience urges caution. In 2014–2015, Bitcoin traded below its 100-week average for almost the entire year, in the 2018–2019 cycle for about half a year, and after the fall of FTX in 2022 for more than 500 days. None of these cases were quick corrections, but rather long accumulation periods.
At the same time, a strong resistance zone between $85,000 and $95,000 is looming above the price, where extremely high volumes were traded at the end of 2025. Investors who entered the market here are often at a loss today, which could trigger strong selling pressure in the event of a rise. Although the weekly RSI indicates proximity to oversold levels, the uncertain macroeconomic environment and weak demand from the US are currently working against a quick turnaround.
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