Bitcoin has not been bringing much joy to investors so far this year. It has lost more than a fifth of its value since the beginning of the year and is heading for its weakest first quarter in eight years. Data shows that if the current trend continues, it could be the worst start to the new year since the bear market in 2018.
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Bitcoin has lost 22% since January
The world’s largest cryptocurrency started the year at around $87,700. Since then, however, it has weakened by approximately $20,000 and is currently hovering around $68,000. This represents a decline of about 22.3% since the beginning of the year.
According to CoinGlass data, Bitcoin could see its weakest first quarter since 2018, when it fell nearly 50% during the first three months. History shows that the first quarter is often volatile for Bitcoin. Of the last thirteen years, seven first quarters ended in the red.
The most significant decline came in 2018 (-49.7%), followed by 2020 (-10.8%) and 2025 (-11.8%). If the current loss persists until the end of March, this year’s first quarter will rank among the worst in the history of cryptocurrency.
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The first red January and February in history?
Bitcoin weakened by 10.2% in January this year and has lost another 13.4% in February so far. If the month closes in the red, it would be the first time Bitcoin has ended both January and February in the red.
For February to get back into the green, the price would have to return above $80,000. So far, however, there are no signs of this happening. Bitcoin has entered its fifth consecutive week of declines and has weakened by another 2.3% to approximately $68,670 in the last 24 hours, according to CoinGecko data.
Historically, Bitcoin has only experienced two consecutive losing first quarters in the bear years of 2018 and 2022.
Ether is falling even more significantly
Bitcoin is not the only one under pressure. The second-largest cryptocurrency, Ethereum, has lost approximately 34.3% so far this year. In the last nine first quarters, Ethereum has ended in the red only three times, with this year’s performance heading towards its third-weakest Q1 in history.
This shows that the current correction is affecting the broader crypto market and is not just an isolated problem for Bitcoin.
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A volatile start to the year is typical for Bitcoin
An analyst posting on the X network under the name Daan Trades Crypto points out that the first quarter is traditionally very volatile for cryptocurrencies. According to him, historical price data suggests that developments in Q1 often do not determine the rest of the year.
Nick Ruck, director of research at LVRG Research, assesses the situation similarly. He told Cointelegraph that the current decline amid ongoing global economic uncertainty “reflects a normal correction phase rather than a structural disruption of the asset’s long-term trend.”
According to him, short-term macroeconomic pressures may intensify, but historically, Bitcoin has often shown a strong recovery in later months after a weaker start to the year. Continuing institutional adoption and the dynamics of the halving cycle play a particularly important role here.
Correction or the beginning of a deeper bear market?
The key question is whether the current decline represents only a healthy correction after the previous growth or signals the beginning of a deeper bear market.
History shows that Bitcoin is an extremely cyclical asset. Declines of tens of percent are not uncommon—and in the past, they have often preceded further growth phases. The current 22% decline may seem dramatic, but in the context of previous cycles, it is not an unprecedented situation.
Whether this year’s first quarter will indeed go down as the worst since 2018 will only become clear in the coming weeks. However, investors should expect volatility to remain a fundamental characteristic of cryptocurrencies – and it is precisely this that distinguishes them from traditional assets.
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