Bitcoin could weaken significantly against gold. If the historical scenario repeats itself, we could see a fall to around USD 50,950. Signals from technical analysis and developments in traditional markets point to a bearish trend.
Is history repeating itself? Technical indicators are not favorable
Bitcoin broke through the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) on the two-week chart against gold (BTC/XAU) on April 22. The same signal in 2022 preceded a decline to the 200-day EMA, and a similar development is emerging this year. If history repeats itself, a decline of up to 35% could follow.
This development is the result of several negative factors. US stock markets have lost approximately USD 13 trillion since their peak in 2025, the largest decline since the 2008 financial crisis. According to Mike McGlone of Bloomberg Intelligence, it is precisely this correlation between Bitcoin, gold and stocks that is key.
Correlation with gold signals a fall
A weakening BTC/XAU ratio often heralds a weakening of Bitcoin against the dollar. History shows that a similar development in the past was followed by a price drop below the 200-week EMA. If this scenario plays out again this year, Bitcoin could fall to around USD 50,950.
Despite possible short-term gains, analysts believe the downward trend will continue. The narrative of so-called “decoupling” — i.e., the separation of Bitcoin from stock market developments — is thus once again proving controversial.
