The price of bitcoin could strengthen significantly this year if the Fed does indeed proceed with further easing and higher liquidity returns to the system. However, according to some analysts, there is also a growing risk of a correction, which could be accelerated by political events in the US.
Abra CEO: Fed already signaling a return to softer policy
Bill Barhydt, CEO of cryptocurrency exchange Abra, says he believes the Fed is gradually moving toward a more relaxed monetary policy. In an interview with Schwab Network, he said that the central bank may continue to cut interest rates while indirectly resuming bond purchases, thereby bringing additional liquidity to the markets.
Barhydt also points out that signs of moderate quantitative easing are already appearing. If demand for US government debt weakens during the year, he believes the Fed may be forced to “feed” the markets with money to maintain stability. According to Barhydt, this scenario should be very favorable for risky assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Markets do not yet believe in a quick turnaround. CME data remains sober
Nevertheless, investors remain cautious and growth expectations are unclear. According to CME Group data, less than 15% of investors currently expect interest rates to be cut at the Fed’s January meeting, which is a decline compared to November. The market is therefore not counting on a rapid easing of policy.
Moreover, some well-known players in the crypto scene do not share this optimism. Early Bitcoin investor Michael Terpin warns that 2026 may, on the contrary, bring another significant decline. According to him, Bitcoin could fall to around $60,000, with the possible bottom coming in the fourth quarter. Terpin points out that monetary policy alone may not be enough for Bitcoin to continue its uninterrupted growth. He believes that the macroeconomic environment could be significantly affected by political developments in the US, which is why he warns of the risks associated with the 2026 congressional elections.
If Republicans do not gain control of both houses of Congress, Terpin believes this could slow down regulatory accommodation towards cryptocurrencies. Data from the Polymarket prediction platform shows that the chances of clear dominance by one party are low, and most traders expect a division of power, which historically often means a period of political uncertainty.
