Bitcoin is holding back for now, while stock markets continue to reach new highs and set new records. The last week has seen sharper growth dynamics, fueled by expectations of interest rate cuts and investors’ belief that the Fed has the situation under control.
The Fed is changing its priorities
Markets believe that the US central bank will be able to keep inflation low and the real economy on a growth trajectory, but the reality is more complex. Lower rates are not necessarily a positive signal – after the Fed’s meeting on September 17, 2025, it became clear that the fight against inflation is receding into the background and the weakening labor market is becoming the main priority. The scope for further rate cuts is almost exhausted, the neutral rate is already very close, and core inflation, according to the latest data, is sticking stubbornly around 3%, which increases the risks for the economy.
The current situation gives the Fed room for a maximum of two 25 basis point rate cuts in the coming months, with larger changes unlikely. Inflation has remained above target for five years, and a return to 2% will take longer, complicating the direction of monetary policy. Investors should therefore prepare for a longer period of stable or slightly falling rates and adapt their strategies to an environment of more persistent inflation, with the Fed’s decisions continuing to depend closely on labor market developments and other macroeconomic indicators.
Bitcoin and the Fed’s inflation target
Bitcoin has formed a potential sell signal in the form of a doji candle on the weekly chart – the price attempted to break above USD 117,000 but failed. This is not a strong rejection, but it is an important price action that may indicate the gradual formation of a bull market peak and serve as a warning to stock investors as well. Given that stock markets are still rising sharply, the price of Bitcoin should eventually follow suit, but the risk of a trend reversal is growing.
Speculation about a change in the Fed’s inflation target from 2% to a higher level has no real basis. The Fed is not preparing us for anything like that and is unlikely to reach its inflation target by the end of the year or even in 2026. For investors, this means longer-term uncertainty in monetary policy and the need for caution when planning further steps and investment strategies, especially if inflation starts to accelerate again as it did in the 1970s.
