Bitcoin is moving again in a technical band that in the previous cycle signaled more than 130% growth. While charts suggest possible exhaustion of sell-offs, the macroeconomic environment of 2026 remains significantly less supportive than two years ago.
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Longest stay in risk zone in history
According to data from Swissblock, Bitcoin spent 25 consecutive days in an extreme risk zone – the longest since the metric was first tracked. In 2023, the market remained in this zone for 23 days and was followed by a sharp reversal. Prolonged stays at these levels have historically corresponded to the late stages of capitulation and bottom formation.
The supply in profit/loss metric, highlighted by Michaël van de Poppe from MN Capital, is now pointing to similar levels. The market is thus moving in an area where trend reversals have historically occurred. This time, however, there is a lack of clear influx of aggressive capital to confirm the signal.
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Weakening demand and cautious ETF flows
RugaResearch points out that 30-day apparent demand is oscillating between positive and negative values. While selling pressure is easing, dominant buying power has not yet emerged. The market could thus remain in sideways movement for an extended period without a clear direction.
Institutional investors are also acting cautiously. On a 90-day moving average, inflows into gold ETFs exceed flows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, which show approximately –2.06 billion USD. A combination of higher inflation, limited liquidity, and cautious monetary policy creates an environment where the technical fractal alone may not be sufficient. Bitcoin thus stands between a historical reversal pattern and the reality of tightened financial conditions.
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