Bitcoin slipped briefly below the $65,000 mark over the weekend, and its market value shrank to approximately $1.31 trillion. Meanwhile, speculation on the prediction platform Polymarket has surged sharply for further declines. Investors are once again grappling with the question of where the true bottom of the current cycle might lie.
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Market Values the Decline as a Real Scenario
On Polymarket, traders are now assigning a 72% probability to Bitcoin falling below $55,000. The volume of bets on this outcome has reached approximately $1.2 million. However, more pessimistic scenarios point even lower – the chances of a drop below $50,000 hover around 61%, and at the $45,000 level stand at 47%, with this level attracting the highest betting volume.
Bitcoin is holding slightly above $64,000 following the weekend washout, but market sentiment remains fragile. Since the beginning of the year, approximately $440 billion has vanished from its market capitalization – roughly a quarter of its value. The cryptocurrency has thus slipped to 15th place among the world’s largest assets, now surpassed by, for example, the ETF Vanguard S&P 500 (VOO). The total value of the crypto market has declined by approximately $760 billion this year, representing a 24.5% drop.
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Liquidity Dries Up, Analysts Talk About “Ultimate Bottom”
Data from CryptoQuant shows a marked cooling of liquidity. Net inflows of stablecoin USDT to exchanges have plummeted from November’s peak of $616 million to just $27 million. According to analysts, this signals a decline in capital ready to enter the market and echoes the situation from 2022, when a cyclical bottom was forming.
The $55,000 level is thus becoming a key point of focus. Standard Chartered acknowledges the possibility of a decline to $50,000 before a potential turnaround. CryptoQuant, on the other hand, designates $55,000 as a potential “ultimate bottom.” Nevertheless, a portion of investors remain long-term optimistic – according to a Coinbase survey, approximately 70% of institutional players consider Bitcoin undervalued already at prices between $85,000 and $95,000. Whether current fear transforms into a rebound from the bottom will be determined primarily by the return of liquidity and fresh capital to the market.
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