The second half of October saw Ethereum under significant selling pressure. Its price, after a weekly decline of 3.55%, hovers around the $2,400 mark, and the market is simultaneously experiencing three unfavorable factors: increasing coin reserves on exchanges, extensive profit-taking by large holders, and continued capital outflow from US spot ETF funds. If buyers do not return soon, the October losses of the second largest cryptocurrency could deepen further.
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Rising Exchange Reserves and Million-Dollar Whale Sell-offs
The first warning sign is the rapid influx of coins onto centralized cryptocurrency exchanges. According to data from the analytical company CryptoQuant, exchange reserves increased from approximately 14.59 million ETH at the end of September to 14.93 million ETH by October 14. While a higher volume of assets on platforms does not automatically mean an immediate sell-off of all transferred funds, it represents a significant amount of coins that owners can readily offer for liquidation. In combination with cooling demand, this creates a strong supply overhang, which pushes the market price down.
Increased selling activity is also confirmed by specific transactions of large holders, so-called whales. Data from the analytical account Lookonchain revealed that a significant over-the-counter (OTC) wallet labeled 0x8c58 sold 9,996 ETH worth approximately $25 million, locking in a profit exceeding $24.4 million after previous accumulations. Attention was also drawn to Patricio Worthalter, founder of the POAP project, who transferred a total of 14,000 ETH, valued at over $35 million, to the Gemini exchange over several days in October, causing further market concerns about potential selling pressure.
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Cooling US Demand and Massive ETF Outflows
The second and third warning signs come from the United States, where interest in Ethereum is visibly waning. The Coinbase Premium Index has dropped to approximately −0.1173, a two-month low indicating that ETH is trading at a discount on the US exchange Coinbase compared to the Binance platform. Concurrently, US spot ETFs are reporting a dramatic retreat of institutional money. According to SoSoValue data, these funds have recorded a series of ten consecutive days of net outflows totaling over $780 million, and despite a slight one-day rebound, the October balance remains deeply in the negative at around $681.5 million.
Ethereum is currently approximately 49% below its all-time high of $4,946 from August 2025, and its position is further complicated by broader macroeconomic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions. The confluence of rising exchange balances, whale profit-taking, and capital outflow from regulated funds creates strong counter-pressure against any sustained recovery. To restore an upward trend, a mere slowdown in sales will not be enough – the market now urgently needs a convincing return of buyers and several consecutive days of stable capital inflows.
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Sources:
- CryptoQuant – On-chain data on exchange reserve status and Coinbase Premium Index indicator: https://cryptoquant.com
- Lookonchain (X / Twitter) – Analysis of whale wallets, transactions at address 0x8c58, and Patricio Worthalter’s transfers: https://x.com/lookonchain
- SoSoValue – Overview of capital flows and daily net outflows from US spot ETFs: https://sosovalue.com
- Kryptomagazín / Terminal Kryptomagazín – ETH price development and market overview charts: https://terminal.kryptomagazin.cz
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