Bitcoin has rebounded by more than half from its June low of under $58,000, climbing to $88,000 USD. The scenario of a deeper fall to $52,000 is thus losing probability for now. The technical market picture has significantly improved, yet one important confirmation that the bearish phase has definitively ended is still missing.
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Long-Term Support Worked Exactly As Expected
Bitcoin, during its latest decline, stopped in an area that has served as significant price support on the long-term chart since 2024. The former resistance turned into support after the previous breakout, and the market reacted with strong growth from it. This is precisely why it now makes less and less sense to expect a return to the area around $52,000, even though several technical models supported such a scenario just a few months ago.
In the short term, however, Bitcoin might give back some of its gains. The price encountered significant supply near $90,000, and a long upper candle remained on the weekly chart, indicating that buyers faced resistance at higher levels. Therefore, from a technical perspective, a return towards $82,000 or possibly $72,000 would not necessarily signify a resumption of the bearish trend, but merely a classic pullback after a sharp rise.
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Bullish Trend Needs a Higher Low and a Higher High
The further development of the market structure will be the most important. Bitcoin has already broken the previous series of lower highs and lows, which is the first step towards a trend change. However, a more definitive confirmation would only come when the market forms a higher low and subsequently surpasses the previous peak. Until that happens, further consolidation or a deeper correction cannot be ruled out, even though the overall technical picture is significantly more favorable than during the summer.
The Power Law model also offers an interesting perspective. Its lower boundary during the formation of this year’s low was near $51,800, but Bitcoin did not reach it at all. The bottom formed significantly higher, and according to the provided data, the current bearish cycle was substantially shallower than in the past. One explanation could be the change in market structure following the advent of spot ETFs. Long-term models from Fidelity are therefore now gaining importance, even if they cannot guarantee further price development on their own.
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