Bitcoin is holding below the $80,000 mark and at first glance appears as if the market is treading water. However, beneath the surface, the technical picture is gradually changing. Long-term indicators are leaning toward a bullish scenario, and the price is approaching levels whose breakthrough has often paved the way for more significant growth in the past. The question remains whether sufficiently strong demand will emerge to disrupt the current equilibrium.
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Bitcoin’s long-term picture is beginning to turn
Monthly RSI and Stochastic indicators suggest that bitcoin may be entering a more favorable part of the market cycle. A similar technical configuration also appeared in 2015, 2019, and 2022, when a new growth phase subsequently followed. With such long time frames, short-term price fluctuations have less significance, so they can better capture a change in the market’s underlying direction. However, it also holds true that their signals confirm slowly, and entire months can pass between an indicator change and a more significant price movement.
Traders’ attention is therefore also focused on the 50-week moving average, around which bitcoin has been moving for several weeks. Historically, this has been an important boundary separating weaker market phases from periods when buyers began to gain the upper hand. Also interesting is the gradual decrease in volatility of individual cycles. While after the 2017 peak bitcoin wrote off approximately 84 percent, the subsequent major bear market meant a drop of roughly 70 percent, and the last significant decline reached approximately 54 percent. This may indicate that as the market size grows, extreme price movements are gradually becoming less pronounced.
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Volumes may decide, not another big headline
A promising-looking chart doesn’t automatically mean that immediate growth must follow. Bitcoin still remains below an important resistance zone, and without a real influx of capital, it may stay in its current range substantially longer. Trading volumes will play a key role. If the price broke through resistance only with weak market activity, the risk of a false breakout and quick return to lower levels would increase. Stronger volumes, on the other hand, would show that the movement is backed by broader demand, not just short-term speculation.
The coming weeks may thus be more of a test of patience than the beginning of an immediate price sprint. A decline to lower-lying supports wouldn’t necessarily cancel the longer-term bullish scenario by itself, while a breakthrough of resistance supported by rising volumes would significantly strengthen the technical picture. Investors can also track the development of bitcoin’s price, trading volumes, and other cryptocurrencies through cryptocurrency platforms, which include, for example, BITmarkets.
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