Bitcoin has just completed an exceptionally strong week, during which its price rose by more than 20% and briefly surpassed the $81,000 mark after a sharp reversal. Although the market has recorded the strongest growth momentum in recent months, traders and bettors on the Polymarket platform remain highly skeptical about immediately reaching $90,000 by the end of August.
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Betting markets remain cautious, odds of $90,000 rapidly declining
On the Polymarket prediction market, bets on breaking the $90,000 barrier by September 1st have dropped to just 4%. Bettors assign significantly higher probability to more moderate targets, with the $82,500 level reaching approximately 40% chance and the $85,000 level around 18%. The decline in expectations came after the price corrected from a three-month high of $81,237 back to the $78,700 area.
Implied probabilities fluctuate with each new trade and do not reflect official analytical forecasts. The Polymarket market is evaluated based on whether at least one minute candle on the Binance exchange hits the given price by the end of August. Bettors are also calculating the opposite scenario, where a drop to the $75,000 level has approximately 33% probability.
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Strong capital inflows into ETFs and moving average signal long-term bull phase
The recent August rally was strongly supported by the return of large capital to U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs, which received net inflows of $1.6 billion in just four days. The positive sentiment was further amplified by the announcement from the U.S. Treasury Department about increasing the volume of Treasury buybacks, which provided markets with much-needed liquidity.
From a long-term technical analysis perspective, bitcoin has also surpassed the 1,130-day simple moving average after 80 days. This signal has preceded the beginning of a new bull trend in all four previous cycles. Although historical patterns do not guarantee future performance and a sprint to $90,000 within a few days remains unlikely, broader market fundamentals indicate a return of long-term strength.
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