Bitcoin has once again slipped below its 200-week moving average, a level that has historically often separated ordinary corrections from much deeper market phases. Weakening capital inflows into ETFs, a growing amount of BTC on exchanges, and uncertainty surrounding interest rates are creating an environment strikingly reminiscent of the summer of 2022.
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Technical picture deteriorates as capital flows elsewhere
Bitcoin has failed to maintain an important long-term technical level, with its weekly close remaining below the 200-week average. Analysts are also pointing to similarities with 2022, when the first breach of this threshold was followed by a brief rebound and then further weakening. The price is now moving within a broader range of approximately $58,000 to $66,000, and a return above the upper part of this range has yet to materialize.
The situation is further complicated by the fact that institutional capital in recent weeks has been flowing more into U.S. artificial intelligence-related stocks than into cryptocurrencies. Spot bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. have recorded net outflows while BTC reserves on exchanges are growing. A higher amount of coins available for trading does not automatically mean selling, but combined with weaker demand, it increases the risk of further downward pressure on price.
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Fed, Japan and bond yields may determine the next move
Another key factor remains monetary policy. Investors are awaiting minutes from the latest Fed meeting and watching whether the central bank will leave rates unchanged in September. While inflation is showing signs of slowing, it still remains above the Fed’s long-term target. Higher U.S. Treasury yields, meanwhile, pose competition for riskier assets and increase capital costs across markets.
Japan is also entering the equation, where expectations of further rate increases are growing and the ten-year government bond yield has climbed to multi-year highs. If tighter monetary conditions in Japan were to combine with high yields in the U.S., it could lead to a broader constraint on global liquidity. Analytics firm Glassnode is also highlighting the importance of institutional flows into bitcoin ETFs, which could be one of the key signals of returning demand. For bitcoin, the coming weeks will thus be a test of whether the current weakness represents only a temporary phase or the beginning of a deeper search for a long-term bottom.
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