The exact amount that attackers stole during the recent attack on Coldcard remains unknown. The reason isn’t just different analytical approaches, but the very nature of hardware wallets and cryptocurrency self-custody. In this environment, there is no central user registry from which a complete list of victims could be extracted. Investigators are therefore reliant on a combination of direct reports from victims and tracking traces on the blockchain – two methods that rarely arrive at the same figure.
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Confirmed damage is not the same as an estimate
Analytics firm CryptoQuant has set confirmed losses at 1,432 BTC. It works with a fairly conservative approach: based exclusively on publicly reported cases (e.g., published addresses or transaction IDs) and then matches them with the identified attack pattern on the blockchain. The minimal risk of including unrelated transactions in the statistics is an advantage, but it may underestimate the real figure.
Galaxy Research operates with higher numbers. Its original estimate of the upper limit at up to 1,816 BTC did not represent verified damage, but rather the maximum possible scope. Later, Galaxy set the lower limit with a high degree of probability at 1,730 BTC.
From direct victim reports, Galaxy has documented over 450 BTC. This data helps analysts link additional wallets with identical behavior, while they prefer not to include some unclear or suspicious transfers in the final total.
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Why does self-custody complicate investigations?
The key to understanding the differences is the distinction between confirmed loss and estimate:
- Confirmed loss requires an active victim who provides data for verification on the blockchain.
- Broader estimate includes addresses and flows that behave as part of the attack, even if a specific owner has not yet come forward.
With cryptocurrency exchanges, the situation is considerably simpler. A centralized platform has its own client database and can precisely determine affected balances. With self-custody wallets, however, bitcoins are scattered among thousands of individuals. If victims don’t come forward publicly, analysts have no choice but to piece together the overall picture from incomplete mosaic fragments.
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