Technical indicators and on-chain data suggest that bitcoin is approaching the end of the bear market. A new “death cross” has paradoxically bullish significance in BTC’s history, and the SOPR indicator has returned to the capitulation zone of previous cycles. However, before a new growth trend begins, the market may test investors’ nerves one more time.
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Historical signals point to the end of the bear cycle
Bitcoin has held in the range of approximately 61,000 to 67,000 USD for several weeks without managing to break out significantly in either direction. However, prolonged consolidation above 60,000 USD may not automatically be positive. The price remains relatively close to this year’s low around 52,000 USD, and the market has not yet managed to leverage solid support for convincing growth. Another test of lower levels therefore remains a realistic scenario.
An important signal came from the crossover of the 50-week and 100-week moving averages. Formally, this is a so-called death cross, which is typically considered bearish. However, in previous bitcoin cycles, similar crossovers preceded the end of downtrends and the beginning of new growth phases. This is a lagging indicator though, so confirmation of a bottom doesn’t mean growth must start immediately.
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On-chain data supports buying, but the Fed remains a risk
The bullish argument is also strengthened by the SOPR ratio between long-term and short-term holders, which has entered the area associated with market capitulation in 2015, 2019, and 2022. Historically, this zone has signaled that weaker investors are selling at a loss and the market is gradually cleansing itself. In all the mentioned cases, however, bitcoin created a new low after the first touch. Current data may therefore indicate that the bottom is near, not that it has already been definitively reached.
The biggest uncertainty is the monetary policy of the US central bank. Expectations of further interest rate increases tighten financial conditions and reduce investors’ appetite for buying risky assets. A breakthrough above 73,000 USD with significantly higher volume would weaken the scenario of a final decline. Conversely, losing support around 60,000 USD accompanied by rising liquidations could trigger a final selloff. Investors on the BITmarkets platform should therefore monitor not only technical signals but also trading volumes and the Fed’s next moves. Signs of reversal are accumulating, but patience may be tested once more before the real start of a new cycle.
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