Bitcoin continues to hold above the $64,000 threshold and maintains room for further growth from a technical perspective. However, weak trader activity, the development of previous cycles, and high real yields on U.S. bonds warn that another wave of sell-offs may come before a genuine reversal.
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Growth scenario still stands on uncertain foundations
Bitcoin’s price has bounced off the upper part of the descending channel and its development is beginning to resemble an accumulation scheme according to Wyckoff theory. If the market maintains its current direction, it could test the $70,000 level during the summer. However, further progress would be complicated by resistance zones near $75,000 and $82,500.
The current growth also lacks stronger support from trading volumes. Wyckoff’s structure often includes a short but sharp decline before transitioning to a new bullish trend, which pushes impatient investors out of the market. In such a case, bitcoin could approach the $52,000 area and only then begin a more stable recovery.
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Whales losing profit, capital attracted by safer assets
Addresses holding approximately 100 to 1,000 bitcoins briefly entered unrealized losses according to CryptoQuant data. Similar situations have appeared in the final stages of bear markets in the past. However, this time it lasted too briefly to mark the current price as a definitive bottom.
According to Bloomberg data, real yields on thirty-year U.S. inflation-protected bonds approached three percent, the highest level since the financial crisis. More attractive yields on safer instruments may limit interest in stocks, gold, and cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin may therefore first undergo a deeper correction before conditions for a new growth trend are established by the end of the year.
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