Where bitcoin will find the definitive bottom of the current bear market remains one of the most discussed questions in the cryptocurrency world. New analysis from Galaxy Digital suggests that this time could see a different development and the decline might not be as deep as in past cycles, primarily due to the unusually calm market peak in October 2025. Although historical data shows a gradual moderation of maximum declines, analysts also warn that the process of finding the final bottom is far from complete.
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Less euphoric peak raises price floor
According to Galaxy Digital’s Head of Research Alex Thorn, last year’s peak was not accompanied by the usual extreme euphoria and speculation. Of eleven traditional indicators signaling a top, only two were activated, with the popular Pi Cycle Top failing to signal for the first time in history and the MVRV indicator reaching a modest value of 2.29. This calmer progression led to investors purchasing bitcoin at higher average prices, which significantly raised the cost basis of the entire network and created stronger support for a future bounce.
The realized price of bitcoin is now hovering around $53,600, which analysts consider a key level for forming a market bottom.
Based on this data, Galaxy Digital has compiled several model scenarios for future development. The researchers’ base scenario anticipates the formation of a definitive bottom in the range between $40,000 to $46,000, while in case of a milder correction, the market could stop already in the range of $51,000 to $54,000, close to the current realized price. However, if widespread panic accompanied by massive sell-offs by investors at a loss were to break out in the market, bitcoin’s price could weaken to the area of $30,000 to $37,000.
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Key signals missing and demand continues to weaken
Caution is also warranted due to the time factor and missing confirmations from technical indicators. Of thirteen tracked indicators that have historically reliably confirmed the formation of a bear market bottom, only four have been activated so far. Previous cycles also reached their definitive minimum approximately 12 to 13 months after the peak, while the current decline has lasted only about eight months, meaning the market may still have several more months of development ahead.
This outlook is also supported by fresh data from analytics firm CryptoQuant, which points to significantly weakening demand. Although bitcoin is currently trading above the $64,000 level, aggregate spot and futures demand recorded a weekly drop of 652,000 BTC, the most significant decline since January 2022. The market is thus facing two conflicting narratives – weakening buyer activity on one side and a more mature asset structure without extreme speculation on the other, which could result in a protracted but historically less deep bear market.
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