Bitcoin is sending its first significant bullish signals since 2025, but they arrive at a moment when global markets balance on the edge of nervousness. Technical indicators suggest a possible reversal, while macro and geopolitical factors keep investors on alert. This very combination could determine the next direction of the entire crypto market.
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Technicals Awaken: Key Indicators Change Tone
On the weekly chart, bitcoin has managed to return above the 200-week EMA – a level that historically separates long-term growth from decline. At the same time, a potential bullish crossover is forming on the MACD, a signal that has historically triggered significant rallies. Most recently in 2025, a similar setup led to gains of roughly 25,000 dollars over several weeks.
The historical context is also noteworthy. In previous cycles, it took approximately 245 days for the MACD to switch into a bullish phase. If this pattern repeats, the market could reach a similar reversal point by the end of April 2026. For now, however, final confirmation is still missing.
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Markets Are Leveraging, but Fundamentals Remain Fragile
The breakout above 70,000 dollars triggered a wave of short position liquidations exceeding 250 million dollars in a single day. Such a move shows how sensitive the current market is to sudden impulses. At the same time, it suggests that part of the growth is driven more by forced buying than by stable demand.
Rising open interest and volumes in derivatives markets confirm the return of speculative capital. While it can temporarily boost momentum in the short term, it also increases the risk of sharp swings. Beyond that, macroeconomic pressure remains a factor – oil above 115 dollars and expected US inflation around 3–3.7% could influence Fed decisions and thus the entire risk asset market.
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