Bitcoin continues to weaken and, from a technical perspective, is once again on the verge of confirming the bearish scenario that the market has been forming for several weeks. The price is dangerously approaching an area where a potential decline could accelerate significantly. The question is therefore not whether another movement will come, but what will trigger it and when we can expect a meaningful turnaround.
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Safety first, risk second
Historically, the same pattern repeats itself: bitcoin rarely starts growing first. It is usually preceded by gold, which acts as a safe haven for capital in times of increased uncertainty. From a psychological point of view, this makes sense: investors first seek safety and only later are they willing to take higher risks.
As long as the precious metals market, especially gold and, to some extent, silver, continues to grow strongly, even parabolically, Bitcoin remains in the background. Capital has limited options, and if it flows into defensive assets, it is simply missing elsewhere. This is precisely why there is often an inverse relationship between gold and Bitcoin, and until this relationship breaks down, we cannot expect a significant recovery in the cryptocurrency market.
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Market bottom? The data is clear for now
The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) indicator does not yet indicate that Bitcoin is near its actual market bottom. The values remain in positive territory, which means that most investors are still in unrealized profit and the market has not yet undergone a widespread capitulation. Historically, this phase has been a necessary prerequisite for the emergence of a long-term bottom.
If the current trend continues, it cannot be ruled out that the process of finding the bottom will extend into the second half of 2026. Moreover, the technical picture remains grim, with Bitcoin still moving within a bearish flag and the nearest strong support lying in the region of around $71,000. A potential impetus could be a meeting of the Federal Reserve System or unfavorable macroeconomic data. It is precisely such a moment that could determine whether the market will finally clear up or whether it will require another dose of patience.
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