According to analysts, Bitcoin is entering a period of increased uncertainty. On-chain data points to a fragile market structure, and without a return above key price levels, there is a risk of prolonged consolidation in a wide price range.
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Weak market structure and pressure for growth
Analysts at Glassnode point out in their regular report that Bitcoin is repeatedly encountering strong resistance zones. Every attempt at growth has so far been unsustainable and often ends in increased distribution by investors.
In recent weeks, the price of BTC has been moving between the True Market Mean level of around $81,100 and the cost price of short-term holders of approximately $98,400. The upper limit of this range is currently acting as a key barrier to further growth. Glassnode points out that the recent rejection of the price near $98,000 is reminiscent of the situation at the beginning of 2022. At that time, Bitcoin repeatedly failed to stay above the purchase price of new investors, leading to several months of consolidation and subsequent market weakness.
According to analysts, this historical parallel shows that the current recovery attempt lacks sufficient buying momentum. The market has so far been unable to generate the pressure needed to confirm the return of a full-fledged bullish trend.
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Supply above $100,000 and institutional uncertainty
Another inhibiting factor is the excess supply in the range above $100,000. On-chain metrics data suggests that a significant amount of coins are concentrated in this range, which could create strong selling pressure when the price rises.
Negative sentiment is also reinforced by capital outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs. Together with growing macroeconomic uncertainty, this increases the likelihood that Bitcoin will continue to move sideways. A break below support around $84,000 could open up room for further declines, while a return to a bull market requires a return to prices above the $98,000–$100,000 range.
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