Bitcoin is showing the first signs of a deeper correction after its growth hit the $93,000 mark. The current market structure strikingly resembles the beginning of 2022, the period preceding a massive bear market.
On-chain data warns of a bearish trend
According to the analytical platform Glassnode, Bitcoin has fallen to its True Market Mean and found support around $81,500. This metric, representing the average purchase price of active coins, was key in 2022, as its breach at the time paved the way for a further 61% drop to $15,500.
Furthermore, the Supply Quantiles Cost Basis model shows that more than 25% of the circulating supply is currently at a loss, as the price has fallen below the 0.75 quantile. CryptoQuant’s Bull Score index has fallen into the 0-20 range, deep into bearish territory, similar to the beginning of 2022.
Bear flag heading towards $68,000
Data from TradingView confirms that the latest rally has encountered strong resistance at $93,000. This level forms the upper edge of a bear flag formation, and a close below $91,000 would confirm the pattern with a target zone around $68,150, representing a decline of approximately 27%.
Momentum remains weak, with the RSI holding at 40, indicating continued selling pressure. The bearish scenario will only be invalidated if the price returns above $96,000, ideally supported by a positive Coinbase Premium, which would indicate growing demand from institutional investors.
Until then, the market remains highly vulnerable to further fluctuations. The situation is also sensitive to the macro environment, interest rate developments, and broader investor sentiment, as the current market structure appears fragile and any external shock could play a key role in the future direction of the trend.
