At the end of 2025, Bitcoin finds itself in a state of uncertainty that is disturbingly reminiscent of the bear market of 2022. It has already lost 36% since its last historic high, and instead of the expected gains, investors are facing a new wave of pessimism. Moreover, economist Timothy Peterson’s analysis shows that the current development almost exactly mirrors one of the darkest moments in Bitcoin’s history.
Bitcoin is mirroring the low point of 2022, while stocks are reporting a massive comeback
Peterson points out that the second half of 2025 is proceeding in virtually the same way as the second half of 2022. The correlation between the two periods reaches 80% on the daily chart and as much as 98% on the monthly chart. The historical context suggests that the period of weakness could extend into the first quarter of next year. In addition, November 2025 was one of the worst since 2015, and according to statistics, a weak November often heralds a lackluster December.
Although the crypto market is showing signs of deep fatigue, the macroeconomic environment offers cautious grounds for optimism. US stocks, on the other hand, are in growth mode, with $900 billion flowing into them from November 2024, according to data from Bloomberg and JPMorgan. In the last five months alone, that figure was $450 billion, while all other asset classes combined gained only $100 billion. This massive shift in capital suggests that investors are once again seeking out risky assets.
ETFs indicate easing pressure
A positive turnaround is also beginning to emerge for cryptocurrency ETFs. US spot Bitcoin funds ended the week around Thanksgiving with an inflow of $22 billion, and Ether ETFs added another $312 million. After weeks of institutional sell-offs, this is one of the first signs that the pressure may be easing and the big players are slowly returning.
The overall market picture thus remains mixed: statistically, Bitcoin is in a situation similar to the painful one in 2022, which does not promise a quick recovery. On the other hand, improving macroeconomic data and new inflows into ETFs are creating room for a potential reversal. A short-term Santa rally is certainly not out of the question in this environment, although it would likely mitigate the declines rather than reverse the trend.
