BITmarkets analysts note that bitcoin is currently developing in a way that is strikingly reminiscent of the period before the 77% crash in 2021. Open interest has fallen to its lowest level since the beginning of 2025, suggesting that the market has shaken off weaker players. If bullish sentiment persists, this could be an attractive opportunity, but it could also be the beginning of a deeper bearish phase.
The price is losing strength and ETFs are unable to curb volatility
At the end of the month, Bitcoin fell below $86,000 and the market is likely to test support around $80,000. Even the presence of spot ETFs has not brought the expected calm, as investors are withdrawing capital from them and sharp sell-offs continue to push the price down. As BITmarkets points out, ETFs are structurally changing the market, but at the same time adding a new type of risk: institutional capital is fast, liquid, and often completely impersonal.
From a technical perspective, there has also been a significant signal of a fourth bearish cross of the MACD indicator on the monthly chart in the last ten years. Historically, this has always preceded bear markets, making it an important indicator, albeit still without guarantees. The market is evolving, and historical patterns can only be used as a guide.
The price is mirroring 2021, but this time more slowly
For several months now, a pattern similar to the end of 2021 has been forming: bitcoin is unable to break through its previous peak and lacks growth momentum. The difference is in the pace: at that time, the market was significantly more aggressive, while now the movements have slowed down and investors are acting more cautiously. Longer consolidation and milder waves may be related to macroeconomic factors and the participation of funds in ETFs.
However, according to BITmarkets, the current similarity to 2021 cannot be overlooked. If we are indeed in a bearish phase, further weakening may follow. However, there may also be a turnaround and a return to growth. No one can be certain; investors must make decisions based on the signals they believe in and accept that uncertainty is a natural part of the market.
