Analysts at Morgan Stanley have called the current Bitcoin period a “time of harvest.” According to their research, the cryptocurrency market is in the autumn phase of a four-year cycle, when investors should consider taking profits before the possible arrival of crypto winter.
Bitcoin enters the “autumn phase”
According to Morgan Stanley investment strategist Denny Galindo, the current situation on the Bitcoin market corresponds to the autumn phase. This is a period when it is advisable to take profits and prepare for a possible cooling off. Historical data shows that Bitcoin usually goes through three years of growth followed by a year of decline. This approach confirms that even the big players on Wall Street perceive Bitcoin in terms of long-term cycles, similar to commodities or other macroeconomic investments.
Current market developments indicate a possible slowdown in the growth phase. On November 5, the price of Bitcoin fell below $99,000, breaking the 365-day moving average—a key indicator whose decline is often considered a bearish signal. Analyst Andri Fauzan Adziima said this development marks the entry into a technical bear market. At the same time, Wintermute pointed to a slowdown in major sources of liquidity, which could lead to lower trading activity.
Institutional investors strengthen confidence in Bitcoin
Despite short-term risks, long-term interest in Bitcoin remains strong among institutional investors. Michael Cyprys of Morgan Stanley Research said that large investors have begun to view Bitcoin as digital gold and a hedge against inflation. The growing number of ETF funds allows for easier access to the market and supports broader institutional adoption of cryptocurrencies. This trend is confirmed by more than $137 billion managed in US spot Bitcoin ETFs.
The increasing participation of institutional players contributes to the stabilization of the crypto market and strengthens its credibility. Nevertheless, analysts warn that Bitcoin remains volatile and requires a strategic approach. The current autumn phase may be a period of profit-taking and preparation for a colder period when growth slows down. Investors should therefore combine caution with a long-term vision and make decisions based on a thorough analysis of market trends.
