Following the Fed’s decision to further cut interest rates and end its quantitative tightening (QT) program, the markets found themselves in a state of fait accompli—something that had long been expected. However, instead of growth, a slight decline followed, showing that investors are responding more to uncertainty about future rate developments than to the central bank’s decision itself.
The Fed has unsettled investors
The differing positions of FOMC members suggest that the Fed itself does not have a clear idea about the future direction of monetary policy. Despite the easing of conditions, the economic outlook remains uncertain, leading investors to be cautious. Markets react mainly to expectations, so any hint of weakness in the Fed’s data or communications can trigger a new wave of volatility.
Bitcoin is still perceived as a risky asset in such an environment. And although it has long been considered a hedge against inflation, in the short term its price moves hand in hand with investor sentiment in global markets.
Will history repeat itself and will there be a 40% decline?
Bitcoin has been hovering around the $107,000 mark for several weeks, where key support is located. Buyer weakness suggests a bearish flag formation with a target of $90,000, from where another decline to $71,000 could unfold – a drop of roughly 40%. We saw a similar scenario at the turn of 2024 and 2025, when the market fell by 31% before subsequently reaching new highs.
A possible decline may not necessarily mean a change in trend, but rather a healthy correction within a broader growth cycle. With another halving on the horizon, the coming months could be extremely interesting for investors.
